Olduvai theory

The Olduvai theory was introduced by Richard C. Duncun at the Summit 2000 Pardee Keynote Symposia of the Geological Society of America. (See the first External link below.) The Olduvai theory provides a modern argument supporting the Malthusian catastrophe. The two paragraphs below are quoted from the abstract of the paper in which this theory was introduced.

The theory is defined by the ratio of world energy production (use) and world population. The details are worked out. The theory is easy. It states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years: 1930-2030.

World energy production per capita from 1945 to 1973 grew at a breakneck speed of 3.45 %/year. Next from 1973 to the all-time peak in 1979, it slowed to a sluggish 0.64 %/year. Then suddenly —and for the first time in history — energy production per capita took a long-term decline of 0.33 %/year from 1979 to 1999. The Olduvai theory explains the 1979 peak and the subsequent decline. More to the point, it says that energy production per capita will fall to its 1930 value by 2030, thus giving Industrial Civilization a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years.

External links

• "The Peak Of World Oil Production And The Road To The Olduvai Gorge" by Richard C. Duncun (2000) (http://dieoff.org/page224.htm)
• "The Post-Petroleum Paradigm -- and Population" by Walter Youngquist (1999) (http://dieoff.org/page171.htm)
• "Forcast of Oil and Gas Supply to 2050" by Jean Laherrere (2003) (http://www.hubbertpeak.com/laherrere/Petrotech090103.pdf)